SAF production rate to slow, complicating airline sustainability plans

SAF production rate to slow, complicating airline sustainability plans

IATA has published its latest sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production figures and issued a stark warning as the industry looks set to miss key targets.

SAF production has doubled from 2024, reaching 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) by the end of 2025, according to IATA. However, these numbers full short of earlier forecasts, and in 2026 the production rate is projected to slow and reach only 2.4Mt.

IATA lists policies in Europe, including the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation and UK SAF mandates, as key hindrances. They say these schemes have pushed high SAF costs onto airlines and fail to nurture a stable supply chain. In a strongly-worded statement, Director General Willie Walsh emphasised the urgency of change:

SAF production growth fell short of expectations as poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry. If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park. But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonisation of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, said it would be ‘outrageous’ if regulators were to take the same approach with forthcoming e-SAF mandates. e-SAF already suffers from a much-higher cost base than conventional SAF due to the costs of renewable energy supplies. 

Regardless, IATA say the failures of SAF so far have already complicated sustainability targets. Walsh adds:

Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10% SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments. SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition. These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered.

Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026 to discuss the future of sustainable aviation. 

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Air traffic control delays in Europe have doubled since 2015

Air traffic control delays in Europe have doubled since 2015

Research from IATA has found that air traffic control (ATC) delays in Europe have doubled over the past decade.

This increase has far outpaced the rate of traffic growth (6.7%), and affected 1.1 billion passengers. IATA estimates the delays have collectively cost the industry €16.1 billion since 2015. Delays due to weather and strikes were not covered in the analysis, which found staff shortages to be overwhelmingly responsible for ATC’s poor performance.

Staff capacity-related disruptions have increased by 179.7% and staffing-related delays by 201.7% since 2015. IATA Director-General Willie Walsh commented:

We’re now seeing the consequences of Europe’s failure to get a grip on air traffic control. A small, expected improvement in 2025 from a very bad 2024 does not change the deterioration that we have seen over the last decade. Airlines and travellers were promised a Single European Sky that would cut delays and reduce fuel burn through more efficient navigation and routes. Instead, passengers have seen delays more than double. 

10 of the 39 European Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) were responsible for 87% of all delays. France (DSNA) and Germany (DFS) alone were responsible for more than 50% of delays. These statistics demonstrate how a handful of countries are having a disproportionately negative impact on the continent’s ATC performance.

Walsh added:

While Eurocrats debate ways to increase the burden of EU261 passenger compensation, the root cause of much of the delay suffered by travellers—air traffic control—escapes without action or censure. And Europe’s connectivity and competitiveness suffer from schedules that must accommodate ATC inefficiency. It is completely unacceptable.

Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026, where we’ll be joined by Heiko Teper, Head of Strategy and Technical Deployment, SESAR Deployment Manager.

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IATA call for safeguards around 5G/6G and aviation frequencies

IATA call for safeguards around 5G/6G and aviation frequencies

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) are calling for safeguards around the deployment of 5G/6G to protect avionics systems and radio altimeters.

IATA has presented a paper at the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) WP5B Meeting in Geneva, Switzerland that outlines priority areas for protection. Radio altimeters, which need spectrum availability, must be taken into consideration in 5G planning to ensure aircraft and crew operate at optimum situational awareness.

Guiding the ITU’s studies will inform the output of the World Radiocommunications Conference 2027 (WRC-27), which will determine the technical conditions for 5G and 6G deployment.

Nick Careen, IATA Senior Vice President Operations, Safety and Security, said:

The benefits of 5G and 6G can never come at the cost of aviation safety. Spectrum decisions must be based on real-world aircraft operations, not idealized telecommunications industry modelling. That means ensuring ITU studies fully reflect the most demanding conditions pilots face. With input from aviation users, WRC-27 must deliver clear global rules to ensure the safe coexistence of radio altimeters and other safety-critical avionic systems with next-generation telecom networks across all phases of flight

In many countries, telecommunications providers have voluntarily implemented measures to avoid interference with o the Radio Altimeter (RAD ALT) allocation (4.2–4.4 GHz). However, in countries such as Canada, these temporary measures are about to expire, potentially leaving aviation communications vulnerable.

Careen added:

Current 5G mitigations were never designed as a long-term solution and several will expire within months. At the same time, more resilient radio altimeters will not reach airlines until the next decade. That leaves a significant mitigation gap. With new spectrum auctions underway and protections being lifted in key markets, regulators must not assume safety will take care of itself. The industry needs clear, consistent safeguards to bridge the period before new altimeters are available.

Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026 to discuss the impact of 5G and 6G on aviation and aersopace.

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Supply chain challenges could cost airlines $11 billion in 2025

Supply chain challenges could cost airlines $11 billion in 2025

A new report from IATA and Oliver Wyman, Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain, forecasts that supply chain challenges could cost airlines more than US$11 billion in 2025.

This is largely due to the slow pace of aircraft production, which has been exacerbated by ever-increasing demand for air travel. In 2024, passenger demand rose by 10.4%, exceeding the capacity expansion of 8.7%, while the worldwide commercial backlog of aircraft reached historic high of 17,000.

Geopolitical instability, material shortages, and labour availability have compounded these supply chain challenges, forcing airlines to keep older aircraft in service for longer. This results in higher fuel costs, maintenance costs, engine leasing costs, and surplus inventory holding costs. According to IATA, these bottlenecks combined will cost airlines US$11 billion in 2025.

The report offers several suggestions for the aerospace industry to mitigate these problems. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented:

Airlines depend on a reliable supply chain to operate and grow their fleets efficiently. Now we have unprecedented waits for aircraft, engines and parts and unpredictable delivery schedules. […]

There is no simple solution to resolving this problem, but there are several actions that could provide some relief. To start, opening the aftermarket would help by giving airlines greater choice and access to parts and services. In parallel, greater transparency on the state of the supply chain would give airlines the data they need to plan around blockages while helping OEMs to ease underlying bottlenecks.

Additionally, the report recommends that the industry improve its use of data, including accelerating predictive maintenance and data sharing to reduce downtime and optimise existing inventory.

Matthew Poitras, Partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, added:

Today’s aircraft fleet is larger, more advanced, and more fuel efficient than ever before. However, supply chain challenges are impacting airlines and OEMs alike. We see an opportunity to catalyse an improvement in supply chain performance that will benefit everyone, but this will require collective steps to reshape the structure of the aerospace industry and work together on transparency and talent.

Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026, where our dedicated supply chain track will discuss how the industry can build resilience and mitigate disruption. 

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SAF production set to fall 100 million tonnes short of targets, IATA warns

SAF production set to fall 100 million tonnes short of targets, IATA warns

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published a global feedstock assessment for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), finding that production potential is 100 million tonnes (Mt) short of what is required by 2050.

The report estimates that the aviation industry will need 500Mt of sustainable aviation fuel in 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. After assessing global feedstock availability, technological adoption, and regional capacity, IATA forecasts that 400Mt could be produced by 2050.

Given that SAF production currently sits at 2Mt, this would be a significant achievement. Yet such forecasts still fall well short of global requirements for aviation to operate at net-zero carbon emissions.

IATA report that what’s holding SAF scaleup back is not feedstock availability, but technology. Achieving necessary levels of SAF production requires a substantial increase in renewable energy programmes, as well as commercial SAF facilities. More production sites need to be reaching maturity over the coming years for 2050 to 500 Mt by 2050 to remain a reasonable target.

The research also finds that the US, Europe, India, and Brazil will become SAF production hotspots, accounting for more than 50% output. Scaling these centres will require strong regional leadership and commitment to investing in a greener future for aviation.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented:

With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.

The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.

Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026 to discuss the future of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

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