The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published a global feedstock assessment for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), finding that production potential is 100 million tonnes (Mt) short of what is required by 2050.
The report estimates that the aviation industry will need 500Mt of sustainable aviation fuel in 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. After assessing global feedstock availability, technological adoption, and regional capacity, IATA forecasts that 400Mt could be produced by 2050.
Given that SAF production currently sits at 2Mt, this would be a significant achievement. Yet such forecasts still fall well short of global requirements for aviation to operate at net-zero carbon emissions.
IATA report that what’s holding SAF scaleup back is not feedstock availability, but technology. Achieving necessary levels of SAF production requires a substantial increase in renewable energy programmes, as well as commercial SAF facilities. More production sites need to be reaching maturity over the coming years for 2050 to 500 Mt by 2050 to remain a reasonable target.
The research also finds that the US, Europe, India, and Brazil will become SAF production hotspots, accounting for more than 50% output. Scaling these centres will require strong regional leadership and commitment to investing in a greener future for aviation.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented:
With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.
The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.
Join us at Aerospace Tech Week 2026 to discuss the future of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
For more like this, see: