The US-Israel attack on Iran has not only caused the cancellation and diversion of tens of thousands of flights: maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) will also be significantly disrupted.
Iran’s ongoing retaliatory strikes on Gulf states, including Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have constrained supply chains and forced the implementation of emergency risk strategies. As airlines evacuate their fleets out of conflict zones, MRO activity is MENA is now reconsolidating around Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The risk of greater damage to aircraft is leading to an increase in MRO activity, while in the long term the war will exacerbate existing supply chain issues.
MRO demand spikes due to conflict
In the short term, the conflict has led to many airlines relocating their fleets away from the Gulf states. Strikes on sites such as Dubai International Airport have further put expensive MRO facilities at risk. And with many thousands of flights cancelled, more aircraft are on the ground than usual, necessitating a pivot to preservation and storage maintenance.
At the same time, aircraft in the air require more thorough inspection and maintenance than usual. With a higher risk of contact with foreign object debris (FOD), regulators are shortening prescribed maintenance cycles to make sure aircraft remain undamaged. And as flight paths are diverted around the conflict zone, aircraft are taking longer routes than they might do normally. This places extra strain on engines and could bring expensive shop visits forward. Inspections on avionics hardware are also stepping up as incidences of spoofing and GPS disruption continue in and around the warring countries.
Conflict exacerbates supply chain issues
Aviation and aerospace logistics have already been hard hit by the pandemic and other geopolitical events. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the current US-Israel-Iran conflict will worsen matters further, disrupting the import and export of critical MRO materials. Transportation via non-maritime means is also surging in price: air cargo costs have gone up by as much as 400%.
MROs will be forced to rely on stockpiles, and in some cases may even be unable to secure the parts needed at a reasonable price. Costs are set to go up, and with the situation remaining uncertain and unstable, it can’t be guaranteed that projects will complete on time.
World leaders are negotiating to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, even if the conflict lasts no more than a few weeks, the aftershocks will be felt for months down the line, especially in MRO. Higher prices and extended backlogs can be predicted in an aviation industry that is already suffering from lengthy delays and turbulence across the supply chain.
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